XenForo Market Share History

Hentai

Enthusiast
Joined
Jun 27, 2014
Messages
166
Sample size is a bit small. With its "most popular" metric being only a small sample of top Alexa ranked sites. Loosing a single install, or failed detection can lead to massive swings of "market share". Plus comparing forum software installs to WordPress installs is since they are both "CMSs" is a bit asinine.

Also note none of the other forum software like vBulletin or phpBB have enough datapoints to on that site display similar historical data. Here is a better apples-apples comparison, note I couldn't find IPB to add to the chart.
 

MagicalAzareal

Magical Developer
Joined
Apr 25, 2019
Messages
723
The web is growing far faster than XenForo's user-base is (or isn't, it is hard to tell from these stats) and it contains a lot more than just forums.
 

overcast

Adherent
Joined
Mar 17, 2019
Messages
487
As long as they have price below the IPS price, they are going to win the market slow and steady.
 

dyrer

Enthusiast
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
123
Unfortunately, forums decreasing and Facebook groups get bigger audience.
 

dyrer

Enthusiast
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
123
Ok I made a mistake what I have wrote before, but I still I dont get your point for this attack.
What do you think about for the future of forums, against others?
 

Paul Buonopane

Aspirant
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
28
Most Popular Sites
Alexa Rank: < 1000
Market Share: 0.783%
What? How are they getting 0.783%? Assuming they actually mean <= 1000, it should be multiple of 0.1%--either 0.700% or 0.800%, nothing in between. Even if we take the "<" literally, we end up with something pretty close--either 0.7007% or 0.8008%. Looking at the graph, market share differences within that category can differ by as little as 0.001% between days; that makes absolutely no sense. You'd need about 50k sites in that category to account for the granularity in their metrics--that's 50x more than the stated number.

One could argue that they're polling multiple times per day and averaging the result, but it'd take an awful lot of churn to account for such differences in such a small sample size, far more than in realistic. They'd have to be polling each site at least 50 times per day; since churn can't reasonably account for small differences, if one of the attempts fails, rather than excluding it from their calculations (i.e., dividing by 49,999 instead of 50,000), they'd have to be treating it as a false match.

I can't come up with an explanation for such numbers that doesn't bring the validity of these metrics into question.

Am I missing something?
 
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Paul Buonopane

Aspirant
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Jan 17, 2015
Messages
28
We're somewhere around Alexa rank 22k. Given that WhatCMS is providing public metrics with a granularity of one day for our category, and is showing changes between individual days, I'd expect them to be polling us at least once per day.

Over the past 3 months, they have polled us on 6 unique days. (In calculating unique days, I'm only treating polls that are at least 24 hours apart as unique. For example, polling at 23:00 and again at 01:00 the next day would only count as a single poll unless we were also polled at <= 01:00 the first day or >= 23:00 the second day. This means that the value will be 6 no matter what timezone is used, excluding changes due to DST.)

Of these 6 polls, only 4 involved requests to our homepage. There were 70 requests in total; almost all were to ridiculous URIs that don't make a whole lot of sense for a service that's trying to dig for info like CMS (e.g., requesting the New Posts page repeatedly in a weird way and crawling members).

Is anyone able to shed some clarity on this? How accurate are these metrics intended to be?
 
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MagicalAzareal

Magical Developer
Joined
Apr 25, 2019
Messages
723
Google gets usage data directly from Chrome about what sites users use. They use it in search.

Alexa is owned by Amazon (I think) who have their own view about what users are doing. They have home units, tablets, and a toolbar.
 

Paul Buonopane

Aspirant
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
28
Google gets usage data directly from Chrome about what sites users use. They use it in search.

Alexa is owned by Amazon (I think) who have their own view about what users are doing. They have home units, tablets, and a toolbar.
Only the list of sites and their relative rankings are taken from Alexa for this data. The determination of what CMS is used by each site is made by WhatCMS. Alexa's data has shortcomings, but they're generally well understood. In particular, the rankings are good enough in a Western-centric context--they're not perfect, but if you're just sorting sites into buckets, which is what's happening here, it's sufficient.
 

whitetigergrowl

Aspirant
Joined
Aug 11, 2006
Messages
46
And other data points I've seen show a decrease of marketshare for Vbulletin and an increase for IPB and Xenforo.

These things just aren't very reliable and tend to be used just for cherry picking purposes.
 

ManagerJosh

Adherent
Joined
Oct 24, 2004
Messages
334
Keep in mind what type of audience is joining the internet and where they will be gravitating to. Percentages don't reflect actual numbers.
 
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