The watching 'vBulletin's market share nosedive' thread.

When will vB drop below 50% market share?


  • Total voters
    170

MagicalAzareal

Magical Developer
Joined
Apr 25, 2019
Messages
758
https://w3techs.com/technologies/overview/content_management/all
https://www.whoishostingthis.com/compare/wordpress/stats/
The first site which comes to mind for these things is W3Tech as they have a fairly long reputation of tracking these things, although they don't give you precise numbers.

Luckily, we know how many sites Wordpress has, so we can calculate backwards off that.

Wordpress has 75 million sites and 33% of all sites.
vBulletin has x sites and 0.1% of all sites.

Let's start by dividing 75 million by 33. That's about 2.2 million per percent.
Divide that by ten and that's 220k sites.

These statistics sites tend to give varying results however, perhaps some crawlers can't find all the sites while others can find other pockets of sites. And they don't need to have millions of paying customers, if you know what I mean, although who knows, I just follow whatever statistics seem reliable.

Edit: I give up on calculating. My brain is half-asleep. Anyway. I think that methodology could get some results. I'm going to bed, good night.
 
Last edited:

zappaDPJ

Administrator
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
Messages
7,752
The figures I've seen vary so wildly they are not worth quoting. It's one reason I like Digital Point's cookie search because it shows trends.

The only figure I've ever heard that had any credibility came from Internet Brands who claimed over 120,000 vBulletin licences sold. That was well over five years ago.
 

LeadCrow

Apocalypse Admin
Joined
Jun 29, 2008
Messages
6,661
Builtwith has a section that details its numbers in a bit more detail corroborating the general trends shown on tracking sites.

Here's vbulletin's page.. Most notably, it gives a numerical value on how many sites migrate to or away from vb, and from/to wich software. Unsurprisingly its loss is xf's greatest gain...
 

MagicalAzareal

Magical Developer
Joined
Apr 25, 2019
Messages
758
I'm sure XenForo would benefit a bit from it, particularly after the big drama where vB accidentally advertised their own competitor lol

Another thing to possibly keep an eye on is if they start raising their prices with little explanation, as that's often a sign of how healthy the market is (or they might just want more money lol).

Wow, this is becoming like divining signs from the stars lol
 

LeadCrow

Apocalypse Admin
Joined
Jun 29, 2008
Messages
6,661
A quick update to marketshare changes as reported on dp.

may 2019february 2021
vbulletin28,69%16,87%
xenforo37,32%47,54%
IPB24,62%22,16%
woltlab9,36%8,27%
discoursenot tallied5,16%

With discourse added, the new number are off by 1-2% meaning woltlab and ipb marketshare remained unexpectedly stable despite active development and other positive changes).
vbulletin's install base is still split between vb3 and vb4 (roughly 40% each), with vb5's unexpectedly rising to 9%. From new vb5/cloud installs, or a significant number of old vb3 and vb4 installs finally switching to other software?
 

tony45

Enthusiast
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
190
A quick update to marketshare changes as reported on dp.

may 2019february 2021
vbulletin28,69%16,87%
xenforo37,32%47,54%
IPB24,62%22,16%
woltlab9,36%8,27%
discoursenot tallied5,16%

With discourse added, the new number are off by 1-2% meaning woltlab and ipb marketshare remained unexpectedly stable despite active development and other positive changes).
vbulletin's install base is still split between vb3 and vb4 (roughly 40% each), with vb5's unexpectedly rising to 9%. From new vb5/cloud installs, or a significant number of old vb3 and vb4 installs finally switching to other software?
Nice job by Xf. Not the software of my choice but they achieved an impressive marketshare
 

zappaDPJ

Administrator
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
Messages
7,752
vbulletin's install base is still split between vb3 and vb4 (roughly 40% each), with vb5's unexpectedly rising to 9%. From new vb5/cloud installs, or a significant number of old vb3 and vb4 installs finally switching to other software?

I'm pretty sure the majority of recent vBulletin 5 gains are due to web hosts switching off obsolete versions of PHP. When site owners wake up to a dead site the quickest way to resolve the issue is an upgrade to vB5 and by upgrade I mean in terms of version number.

I do wonder how vBulletin will survive when PHP 8 becomes the norm. Legacy coding, probably going back to vB3 will turn warnings into fatal errors which will no doubt add to the existing rather large bug count with very few (perhaps 2?) coders left working on the platform.
 

Joeychgo

TAZ Administrator
Joined
Feb 28, 2004
Messages
6,980
vbulletin's install base is still split between vb3 and vb4 (roughly 40% each), with vb5's unexpectedly rising to 9%. From new vb5/cloud installs, or a significant number of old vb3 and vb4 installs finally switching to other software?

Sure - because as you, I and others predicted, there is no viable upgrade path for VB. As vb 3&4 installations finally decide they are missing out on too many features from lack of development, they are being forced to switch. I was one of the holdouts on switching from vb 4 to XF because I had so much in customization I stalled as long as I could to avoid the costs.
 

jair101

Participant
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
83
I'm pretty sure the majority of recent vBulletin 5 gains are due to web hosts switching off obsolete versions of PHP. When site owners wake up to a dead site the quickest way to resolve the issue is an upgrade to vB5 and by upgrade I mean in terms of version number.

Or people migrating away from VB3/4 to other platforms, which bumps the relative percentage of VB5.
 

Jeremy8

Enthusiast
Joined
Mar 7, 2007
Messages
175
Where is this data coming from? What's DP? Where is SMF or phpBB (is this only paid software?)? What is it showing anyway? New installs only? Active users?
 

LeadCrow

Apocalypse Admin
Joined
Jun 29, 2008
Messages
6,661

Its a public reports of statistic data Digitalpoint already builds from spidering activity. From his own assurances, its supposedly more accurate than other metrics people tended to use to gauge the popularity of scripts, as long as your website had even a small number of views, 1 backlink or wasnt completely private.

As for what that table tracked, its commercial forum software used on a large enough number of websites (only those currently online, with the reported % being out of the total of those detected). I presume Discourse was added because its no longer complex to install thanks to cloud hosting doing away with many limitations from oldschool shared hosting, and installs of legacy scripts whose main argument was being available gratis back then like mybb and smf are converting to modern free scripts like discourse and nodebb (not listed).
As for the exact numbers, theyd not be too hard to extrapolate from vendors' financial disclosures but itd be handy to put a rough install count on those percentages. If you would Digitalpoint ?
 

feldon30

Adherent
Joined
Jun 7, 2013
Messages
499
Where is this data coming from? What's DP?
Where is SMF or phpBB (is this only paid software?)?
His stats are limited to commercial software.
What is it showing anyway? New installs only? Active users?
Neither. He wrote a bot that crawls millions of web forums and logs which type of forum software they have installed.
 

DigNap15

Fan
Joined
Sep 14, 2019
Messages
549
A quick update to marketshare changes as reported on dp.

may 2019february 2021
vbulletin28,69%16,87%
xenforo37,32%47,54%
IPB24,62%22,16%
woltlab9,36%8,27%
discoursenot tallied5,16%

With discourse added, the new number are off by 1-2% meaning woltlab and ipb marketshare remained unexpectedly stable despite active development and other positive changes).
vbulletin's install base is still split between vb3 and vb4 (roughly 40% each), with vb5's unexpectedly rising to 9%. From new vb5/cloud installs, or a significant number of old vb3 and vb4 installs finally switching to other software?
What is interesting is that xenforo has gone up A LOT, and IPB has gone down a bit.
 

Pete

Flavours of Forums Forever
Joined
Sep 9, 2013
Messages
2,121
That’s not really that surprising, it looks like most of the vB drop went to XF (logical as the spiritual successor in all the ways that matter) and the rest jostle for position around Discourse coming into the fray.

What would be interesting to know from this is how much of that IPS sector is self hosted vs cloud, and whether DP’s tracker is detecting off measures that can reliably infer even if branding-free is in play (I suspect it can, being based off cookies rather than DOM scraping)
 

zappaDPJ

Administrator
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
Messages
7,752
Something that I find more than a little surprising is according to Digital Point unsupported versions of vBulletin make up 91.1% of vBulletin installations. That's ten years after the release of vBulletin 5.
 

Pete

Flavours of Forums Forever
Joined
Sep 9, 2013
Messages
2,121
I remember seeing the FAQs when vB5 first came out and how half of them were 'where is <feature x>' to be answered with 'it has been removed from vB5, it will return in a later version' but without any indication if or when that would be.

The other thing, vBulletin did keep its older versions available for a while - I'm pretty sure I can go download vB 3 and vB 4 from their download area as well as vB 5... which leaves me with, why would I download vB 5? It's been ten years and I don't believe there are that many people that would defend vB 5 as being on feature-parity (or better) than vB 4 for example.
 

Alpha1

Administrator
Joined
May 28, 2007
Messages
4,070
I wonder what marketshare BuddyBoss and Vanilla have. Digitalpoint Please consider to add these. BuddyBoss should be easy to track. Its a fork of BuddyPress, but has a its own framework, theme on top of it. Buddyboss has gained a lot as they have a clear roadmap and are fully WordPress compatible. BB states they have over 50k customers, which is quite significant. This may be more than IPS.
 

LeadCrow

Apocalypse Admin
Joined
Jun 29, 2008
Messages
6,661
vB 5 that bad, huh?
Even if it wasnt and market realities actually changed in favour of simpler addonless experiences or SaaS, it's a natural consequence of how IB's pricing scheme backfired at the expense of jelsoft/vBulletin Solutions as everyone predicted it would. Sure, theyd get a lot of initial uptakes to show shareholders a temporary boost, but then none - while still being on the hook for continued development and support upkeep.

It costs less money to switch to competing software than it is to stay with your current vendor and gain access to vb5. It'd make sense that people arent even offloading their used vb licences and just letting them rot unused while they play with new toys.

Everyone and their dog is moving to the jelsoft-era licencing system they ditched, in addition to SaaS they difficultly monetize due to consumer distrust and a general dislike of vb5 (cloud shouldve maybe been based on vb4). Its a more predictable source of funding and keeps vendors more attuned to clients' needs.
 
Top