The watching 'vBulletin's market share nosedive' thread.

When will vB drop below 50% market share?


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Paul M

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Getting back to the original subject, I see VB is now 10.5 % behind XF.


In fact, its close to being overtaken by Invision now as well.


Also, even 6+ years after vB5 was released, its barely on 5.1%, most vB sites are still on vB3 or vB4.
 

LeadCrow

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I'm most intrigued by the drastic overnight increase of nginx's marketshare, if its not an error (large webhosts and containers switching to google cloud?).
Unless I'm mistaken nginx support was natively added to vb5 so this ecosystem shift might accelerate the demise of vb3 and vb4.
 

Digitalpoint

Brain
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I'm most intrigued by the drastic overnight increase of nginx's marketshare, if its not an error (large webhosts and containers switching to google cloud?).
Unless I'm mistaken nginx support was natively added to vb5 so this ecosystem shift might accelerate the demise of vb3 and vb4.
Seems weird to me too. But I also haven’t cared enough to really go digging to see what the change was.
 

R0binHood

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Over 1/3 of all XF sites are on 2.x now by the looks of it

upload_2019-3-12_17-23-58.png

And over 50% PHP 7.x adoption.

upload_2019-3-12_17-24-19.png
 

Steve

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You will likely see a transition to 2.1 the more stable it becomes and with XF 1.x being EOL by the end of this year.
 

rudedog

Jim
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Looks like vB will fall behind Invision soon

Xenforo - 40.2%
vBulletin - 25.8%
Invision - 24.5%
Burning Board - 9.4%​
 

MagicalAzareal

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XenForo, IPB, SMF, MyBB, etc.'s market-share are also nose-diving.
The only one that is going up is Discourse but it's nowhere near enough to prop up the market with how fast it is shrinking.

Losing a fifth of your sites in a year is not a "victory", it's merely fighting to become the captain of a sinking ship. vB is only taking the brunt of it because it's the most popular, therefore it has the most sites to burn into oblivion.

What you are seeing is the death of the forum market.
 
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Digitalpoint

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XenForo, IPB, SMF, MyBB, etc.'s market-share are also nose-diving.
The only one that is going up is Discourse but it's nowhere near enough to prop up the market with how fast it is shrinking.

Losing a fifth of your sites in a year is not a "victory", it's merely fighting to become the captain of a sinking ship. vB is only taking the brunt of it because it's the most popular, therefore it has the most sites to burn into oblivion.

What you are seeing is the death of the forum market.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but...

vBulletin is not the most popular unless you are living 10 years ago, and I don't think Discourse is as popular as you think. Discourse would have to more than double it's install base while Burning Board didn't gain a single install for it to even have as many installs Burning Board (which isn't a very big install base in itself).

upload_2019-5-13_11-46-51.png
 

overcast

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I wonder how much spectrum forum which github recently purchased has managed to get some people to create community on their platform. Also I wonder how many people are using something like Flarum?
 

haqzore

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Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but...

vBulletin is not the most popular unless you are living 10 years ago, and I don't think Discourse is as popular as you think. Discourse would have to more than double it's install base while Burning Board didn't gain a single install for it to even have as many installs Burning Board (which isn't a very big install base in itself).

View attachment 52867
While he did say "shares", I took his comment more as one of # of installs. Like:
  • All forum script installs: 1 million. VB: 100k of those.
  • As forums decline today, VB has vastly more raw #'s to lose.
  • So if today all forum script installs are down to 900k.
  • ALL scripts are losing (VB/XF/Invision). But, VB loses more than others, due to their larger foundation.

Not sure I agree, but would be curious to see rounded #'s rather than %'s.
 

MagicalAzareal

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Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but...

vBulletin is not the most popular unless you are living 10 years ago, and I don't think Discourse is as popular as you think. Discourse would have to more than double it's install base while Burning Board didn't gain a single install for it to even have as many installs Burning Board (which isn't a very big install base in itself).

View attachment 52867
Wappalyzer, W3Tech and a few other statistics sites show that every software, except for Discourse are being absolutely punished in the number of raw sites they're losing.
Also, the big three are apparently Discuz! (China's vBulletin), bbPress and vB, if we're talking market-share, which doesn't really matter in today's age.
While he did say "shares", I took his comment more as one of # of installs. Like:
  • All forum script installs: 1 million. VB: 100k of those.
  • As forums decline today, VB has vastly more raw #'s to lose.
  • So if today all forum script installs are down to 900k.
  • ALL scripts are losing (VB/XF/Invision). But, VB loses more than others, due to their larger foundation.

Not sure I agree, but would be curious to see rounded #'s rather than %'s.
There is also the factor of vB being a more dated software, however a lot of these sites are shutting down outright rather than converting to XF / IPB, so it shrinking doesn't benefit anyone but Facebook / Discord.

Due to vB, forums used to permeate every corner of the web and as those sites go down, the forum market has shrunk a loooot, so I wouldn't be smug about vB nosediving.
 
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mysiteguy

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Where does Wappalyer and W3Tech show the absolute number of installs? From what I've seen, they've always shown percentages of all web sites installed, not absolute numbers
 

LeadCrow

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Wappalyzer, W3Tech and a few other statistics sites show that every software, except for Discourse are being absolutely punished in the number of raw sites they're losing.
It might not be as clearcut as it looks. A forum running paid software is likely to migrate to another paid script - one's loss being another's gain, without expanding the market.

That said, It'd help for the % to be mapped to an actual number for at least the total boards detected running a commercial script. The only reason we're speculating is because it's unclear wether the market is actually expanding, contracting or stable (compared to vb's data for lifetime sales and vbcloud marketshare). The respective forumware providers are already aware of how many licences sold and licenced sites are online anyway.
 

MagicalAzareal

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Where does Wappalyer and W3Tech show the absolute number of installs? From what I've seen, they've always shown percentages of all web sites installed, not absolute numbers
vB = XenForo times 4 (I believe). Used to be somewhere in the millions in 2015, if I recall.

Discuz! = XenForo times 3.

bbPress - Over 100k sites.

XenForo - Over 100k sites.

MyBB - Over 10k sites.

Discourse - 80% of MyBB.

FluxBB - Over 1k sites.

Off the top of my head.

I looked at a few sites a year ago (too many pages in my web history to quickly find them), which also incidentally said that the #1 phpBB forum is a porn site, those people must be very passionate about that stuff lol
That said, It'd help for the % to be mapped to an actual number for at least the total boards detected running a commercial script.
Precise numbers would be great.
 
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mysiteguy

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vB = XenForo times 4 (I believe). Used to be somewhere in the millions in 2015, if I recall.

Discuz! = XenForo times 3.

bbPress - Over 100k sites.

XenForo - Over 100k sites.

MyBB - Over 10k sites.

Discourse - 80% of MyBB.

FluxBB - Over 1k sites.

Off the top of my head.

I looked at a few sites a year ago (too many pages in my web history to quickly find them), which also incidentally said that the #1 phpBB forum is a porn site, those people must be very passionate about that stuff lol

Precise numbers would be great.
I think you're seriously overestimating the number of forums then. Millions of VBulletin installations would have put its market in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Builtwith shows 19,714 current VBulletin forums. Assuming when you say millions its on the low end (we'll use 2 million), that would amount to a loss of 99.1253% of VBulletin sites.

Xenforo's overall market size has been increasing since they launched. They've gone from 0 to 14,187 forums.

Builtwith, in 2015, showed the following data:

ProBoards - 3.8 million
InvisionFree: 2.7 million
ZetaBoards: 120,000
Discuz - 160,000
vBulletin – 44,540
phpBB – 27,073
SMF – 25,811
Forumotion – 14,459
XenForo – 8,781
Vanilla 2,154
Discourse – 697
 

MagicalAzareal

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I cannot attest for their accuracy as I did not personally write the tools, but quite a few seem to be reaching towards that consensus, so there must be some kernel of truth.

Of course, any measurements of the "entire web" are bound to run into issues.

Also, if I recall, "Builtwith", last I checked it, put software with known high numbers of sites into the double digits. I am not sure it is accurate. And Proboards / Invisionfree are easier to crawl as they're both on single domains, if I recall, rather than spread out across the web.
 
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